硕士英语综合教程1(部分课文英汉对译)

Unit 1

Creating a Low-Carbon Economy

创建低碳生活

Overview

概述

1. There is no longer any real question that global warming is occurring as the result of the rapid build-up of greenhouse gases primarily caused by human activities. We are on a trajectory for global warming to become much more intense unless we begin a concerted, rapid shift toward a low-carbon economy. And the danger is increasingly clear and present. As Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, has said, “If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.”

对于主要由人类活动而迅速积累的温室气体引发了全球变暖这一事实，没有人再持有异议。除非我们协同一致，快速转向低碳经济，否则全球变暖的趋势将会愈演愈烈。这一危机日益彰显逼近。正如获得2007年诺贝尔和平奖的联合国间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）拉金德拉·帕乔里所声称的：“如果在2012年之前我们还没有采取行动，那就为时已晚了。我们在未来两到三年中的所作所为将决定我们的未来。这是决定性的时刻。”

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2. The Earth’s average temperature has already increased by 0.8°C（about 1.4°F）over pre-industrial levels, increasing at a rate of 0.2°C per decade since 1975, and without changing our course, we will lock several more degrees of change into the system. Such temperature shifts may sound small, but they are not. During the last ice age, average global temperature was only about 5.4°C（about 9.7°F） colder than it is now.

同工业化前的水平相比，地球平均温度已经上升了0.8摄氏度（1.4华氏度左右），速度为自1975年以来每十年增加0.2摄氏度；如果我们仍然一意孤行，那么温度还会继续发生永久性的变化。这种温度变化听起来似乎不大，但事实并非如此。最后一个冰河时代时的全球平均气温不过比现今低约5.4摄氏度（9.7华氏度）。

3. Many of our leading climate scientists have warned that if we exceed 2.0°C（about 3.6°F） above pre-industrial times, we will enter a dangerous, uncharted territory. No one knows at what precise temperature the effects of global warming become intolerably large, whether as a result of gradual worsening of droughts, floods, hurricanes, and heat waves or as a result of abrupt, catastrophic change, such as the collapse of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets and the accompanying global swell in sea levels. But we are conducting a dangerous uncontrolled experiment with the only home we have. This is why young people in increasing numbers are starting to see climate change as the challenge of their generation.

很多权威的气候学家们都曾发出过这样的警告：如果我们现在的温度超过工业化前2摄氏度（3.6华氏度）的话，我们将会迈进一个危险的未知国度。没有人能知道到底全球变暖具体达到多少度会变得无法控制，并且造成像干旱、洪水、飓风以及热浪等自然灾害的逐渐恶化，造成诸如格陵兰岛或西南极洲大冰原坍塌以及伴随的全球海平面上升等意外的灾难性变化。但是我们还依然在

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我们唯一的家园上不断做着危险而又不受约束的尝试，这也是为什么越来越多的年轻人开始将气候变化视为他们这一代人的一项挑战。

4. The Washington Post reported in April that, “For many children and young adults, global warming is the atomic bomb of today. Fears of an environmental crisis are defining their generation in ways that the Depression, World War Ⅱ, Vietnam and the Cold War’s lingering ‘War Games’ etched souls in the 20th century.”

《华盛顿邮报》4月刊报导到：“对于许多儿童和青年而言，全球气候变暖无异于当今的原子弹。对于环境危机的担忧正影响着这一代人，正如经济大萧条、第二次世界大战、越南战争和冷战等等挥之不去的‘战争游戏’影响了20世纪的灵魂一样。”

5. Some of the dire projections may not occur, but in light of the warnings from our best scientists, it would beyond irresponsible to take that bet. Scientists are telling us if we do not take action soon, it will be late to avoid the most serious consequences of global warming.

有些可怕的预测可能并不会发生，但考虑到那些最优秀的科学家们发出的警告，如果我们再冒险尝试将是极不负责任的做法。科学家告诉我们，如果我们不尽快采取行动，想要避免全球变暖引发的最严重恶果则为时晚矣。

Environment Costs

环境损失

6. The projected environment consequences of climate change are well known. The

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only thing that keeps changing, with the steady drumbeat of new and better scientific data and analysis, is that the picture gets more and more serious. In the words of Harvard’s John Holdren, one of our leading science policy thinkers, global climate change is the most dangerous of all environment problems because climate represents the envelope within which our natural systems operate. By badly disrupting that envelope, we “adversely affect every dimension of human well-being that is tied to the environment.”

气候变化对环境所造成的后果预测众所周知。依据稳健可靠的优新科学数据分析，唯一保持不断变化的景象就是越来越糟的环境。作为首席科学专家之一，哈佛大学的约翰·霍尔德伦指出，在所有环境问题中全球气候变化是最危险的，因为气候就像一个信封，保障其中所有自然生态系统正常运作。如果这一包裹层遭到严重破坏，我们就会“对环境影响下人类福祉的每一个层面产生不利影响。”

7. The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change Impacts released in April 2007 by the IPCC, the official body of over 2,000 scientists acting under the auspices of the United Nations, presents a stark picture. The IPCC report says that “human induced climate change is already affecting physical and biological processes on all continents and some oceans.” Among other impacts, the report warns of:

在联合国的主持下，IPCC2000多名科学家组成的官方机构于2007年4月发布了关于气候变化影响的第四次评估报告，为人们展示了一幅鲜明的预警图。IPCC的报告声称“人类活动引起的气候变化已经影响到所有和一些海洋的物理及生物进程”。在诸多影响中，该报告尤其警告：

 Extreme weather events such as drought, floods, and severe storms, including hurricanes, becoming more intense and inflicting greater damage to life and property.

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极端天气事件，如干旱、洪水和严重的风暴，包括飓风，将变得更加严重，对生命和财产造成更大损害。

 Increasing hurricane intensity.（other recent scientific findings suggest that not just the intensity but also the frequency of hurricanes is increasing with rising sea-surface temperatures.）

飓风强度增加。（其他最新科学研究结果表明，不只是强度，飓风的频率也会增加，同时伴随海表面温度升高）。

 Rising sea levels threatening the mega-delta regions of Asia, coastal cities in Europe, low-lying areas in North and Latin America, and small islands. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet alone could lead to a sea-level rise of seven meters.

海平面上升，威胁亚洲的大型三角洲地区、欧洲沿海城市、北美和拉丁美洲的低洼地区，及小岛屿。单是格陵兰冰原融化就可能导致海平面上升7米。

 Increased water scarcity facing 1 billion to 2 billion people.

水资源匮乏问题恶化，10亿至20亿人口面临缺水。

 Increased risk of heat- and flood-related mortality and of water and food-borne diseases.

发生高温及洪水造成死亡、水及食物传染疾病的风险增加。

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 Declining crop yields and increased hunger in some regions, including parts of Africa and Asia.

作物产量下降，一些地区饥荒严重，包括非洲和亚洲的部分地区。

 Degrading fisheries.

渔业不景气。

 Declining coral reef systems.

珊瑚礁系统退化。

 Extinction facing 20 percent to 30 percent of global plant and animal life.

全球20％至30％的植物和动物面临灭绝。

Economic Costs

经济损失

8. There is substantial uncertainty about the precise economic costs of climate change, but if we continue to our current path there is little doubt that overall they would be very large. A look at trend lines from the insurance industry gives a hint of the kind of rising magnitude of damage we might see from just one projected effect of global warming — extreme weather events.

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关于气候变化的具体经济成本很难确定，但如果我们不改变做法，这笔数字无疑会非常庞大。参考保险业的趋势，我们可以得到这样一个暗示，当损害程度上升到一定量时就会造成严重的后果，那么在全球变暖带来的诸多影响里，其中之一就是极端天气现象的产生。

9. At the meeting of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Morocco in 2001, large reinsurance companies（which offer insurance to other insurers）such as Swiss Re and Munich Re warned of the increase in extreme weather events. According to Munich Re, “The number of really big weather disasters has increased four-fold if we compare the last decade to the 1960s. The economic losses have leaped seven-fold and the insured losses are 11 times greater.” In 2004, Swiss Re warned in a report that the costs of natural disasters, aggravated by climate change, threatened to double to $150 billion a year in 10 years.

2001年在摩洛哥举行的联合国气候变化框架公约会议上，如瑞士和慕尼黑等大型再保险公司（为其他保险公司提供保险）发出警告表示极端天气事件一再增加。据慕尼黑再保险公司声称：“如果我们把过去十年和20世纪60年代相比较，真正大灾害性天气的数量增加了4倍。经济损失已经扩大了7倍，保险损失也提高了11倍。” 2004年瑞士再保险公司在一份报告中警告说，气候变化加剧导致的自然灾害损失在未来10年内可能每年都会翻倍至1500亿美元。

10. More systematically, the much discussed Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change, commissioned by the British government and authored by Sir Nicholas Stern, former Chief Economist for the World Bank, concludes that economic damages from climate change could be seismic:

由英国委托、前世界银行首席经济学家尼古拉斯·斯特恩爵士撰写的《斯特恩评论气候变化

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下的经济》引起了广泛讨论，他在其中更系统地总结到气候变化带来的经济损失可能影响巨大：

Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and economic depression of the first half of the twentieth century. And it will be difficult or impossible to reverse these changes.

在未来的几十年里，我们的行为可能会对经济和社会活动造成很大破坏，在本世纪末及下世纪，其规模类似二十世纪前半叶大战和经济衰退带来的相关影响。想要逆转这些变化很难，甚至是不可能的。

11. Stern sees the threat of this major disruption coming from a number of factors, including the increased costs of damage from extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, heat waves, and major storms; the risk that such events affect global financial markets through higher or more volatile in insurance costs; and the risk of abrupt and large-scale climate change. Stern also points to the consequences of climate change on environment and on human health as economic growth and productivity suffer under the weight of degrading environmental conditions.

斯特恩认为造成这一重大破坏的成因很多，包括：如洪水、干旱、飓风、热浪、大暴雨等极端天气现象所造成的损失越来越大；由于保险费用更高或更不稳定，此类现象可能影响全球金融市场；同时存在突发大规模气候变化的风险。斯特恩还指出，迫于环境条件恶化，经济增长缓慢，生产力下降，气候变化对环境和人类健康可能带来哪些后果。

Building a Low-Carbon Economy

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创建低碳经济

12. To design policies aimed at creating a low-carbon economy, we need to understand first the extent to which global average temperatures can rise without triggering the dangerous consequences of global warming and, second, how low we need to keep the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases in order to stay within that temperature limit. both of these questions（the temperature limit and the concentration limit）must be answered based on scientific analysis of historic climate data and projections of future conditions, and state-of-the-art computer models paint a stark picture of what is to come.

想要设计旨在创建低碳经济的，我们首先需要了解在哪一范围内全球平均气温上升却不会触发全球变暖的危险后果。第二，在温度极限内要保持多低的大气温室气体浓度。回答这两个问题（温度极限和浓度极限）必须运用以历史气候数据为基础做出的科学分析和对未来状况的预测，以及通过最先进的计算机模型所描绘出鲜明的未来预测图。

13. As noted, global mean temperature is about 0.8°C（1.4°F）above pre-industrial levels, and another 0.6°C（1.1°F）of further warming is probably built into the system already. Even if we cut off emissions tomorrow, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would continue rising since these gases persist in the atmosphere for a very long time – from decades to thousands of years after they are first emitted depending on the specific type of greenhouse gas.

如前所述，全球平均气温比工业化前的水平约高0.8 摄氏度（1.4 华氏度），并且将永久性再升高0.6 摄氏度（1.1 华氏度）。即使我们明天停止排放，大气中的温室气体浓度仍会继续上升，

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因为这些气体在大气中能保留很长时间——不同温室气体一经排放，可能保留几十年甚至几千年。

14. The evidence is mounting for the need to maintain global average temperatures at no more than approximately 2.0°C（3.6°F）above pre-industrial levels, a level the Center for American Progress and others called for in 2005 in “Meeting the Climate Challenge,” the report of the International Climate Change Task Force that was chaired by Sen. Olympia Snowe（R-ME） and U.K. Member of Parliament Stephen Byers. As John Holdren has discussed, the scientific view of an appropriate temperature target has evolved recently downward:

其证据是我们曾努力将全球平均气温保持在不超出工业化前温度约2.0 摄氏度（3.6 华氏度）的水平，这一水平是美国进步中心及其他组织在2005 年撰写的一份名为《迎接气候挑战需要》的报告中所倡导的，该报告隶属于由参议员奥林匹亚·（R-ME）和英国议员斯蒂芬·拜尔斯主持的国际气候变化专题小组。约翰·霍尔德伦讨论到，科学观点所认为的适当温度目标最近已经下调：

Until a few years ago many analysis and groups were suggesting that stabilization of atmospheric concentrations at a level corresponding to a 3°C increase was in fact a suitable target…The last few years of accumulating evidence about impacts already being encountered at only 0.8°C above the pre – industrial average temperature, however, have led many analysis to argue for a more ambitious target, with some（including the European Union）settling on 2°C.

几年前，许多分析师和团体均表明将大气浓度稳定在上升3摄氏度的水平是合适的目标……但是前几年比工业化前平均温度仅高出的0.8摄氏度所产生的种种影响已经使得许多分析家坚决主张应该制定一个更高目标，一些国家（包括欧盟）将其设定在2 摄氏度。

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15. If a temperature target in this range is not maintained, the planet faces serious risks. In a February 2007 statement to U.N Secretary - General Ban Ki -moon, and the U.K. Commission on Sustainable Development, Holdren said:

如果这一范围内的温度目标没有实现，地球将面临严重风险。霍尔德伦在2007年2月向联合国秘书长潘基文及联合国可持续发展委员提交的声明中说：

If the build-up of greenhouse gases pushes the global average surface temperature past 2-2.5°C above the pre-industrial level, the danger of intolerable and unmanageable impacts of climate change on human well-being becomes very high.

如果温室气体累积，将全球平均地表温度提升至比工业化前水平高2-2.5摄氏度的水平，那么人类将难以承受、无法治理的气候变化就非常有可能发生，并对人类的福祉产生影响。

16. Dr. James Hansen, the noted climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institude for Space Studies, has issued similar warnings:

美国宇航局戈达德空间研究所的著名气候学家詹姆斯·汉森博士发出了类似的警告：

We conclude that global warming of more than about 1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. 我们的结论是相对2000年的，全球气候变暖超过1摄氏度将构成“危险”的气候变化，这一点从海平面上升和物种灭绝可能产生的影响就可以做出判断。

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17. The IPCC, in its Fourth Assessment Report on Mitigation of Climate Change, published in May 2007, analyzes the concentration levels that correspond to estimated increases in the global mean average temperature above pre-industrial levels. According to this analysis, keeping average temperature to an increase in the range of 2.0°C to 2.4°C would require a CO2 equivalent concentration – or CO2e, which is a measurement that expresses the global warming potential of all greenhouse gases compared to CO2 – in the range of 445 parts per million to 490 parts per million, a highly ambitious target.

IPCC在2007年5月出版的第四次气候变化减缓评估报告中分析到，现在的大气浓度同工业化前全球平均气温预计的升高程度持平。根据这一分析，平均温度保持在2.0摄氏度到2.4摄氏度的增长范围内将需要CO2等量浓度——或CO2e，即和CO2相比所有温室气体的全球变暖潜力的测量方式——范围为445等份/百万至490等份/百万，这一目标有相当难度。

18. The challenge before us, then, is clear, and nothing is gained by delay. If we ignore the risks of climate change and oil dependence, or fail to mobilize the political will needed to address them, then we will ultimately be forced into a much more costly and much less effective crash program down the road. A short-sighted, business-as-usual approach to climate change will make it more difficult to cope with increased disaster-related damage in the future and force us to abandon existing infrastructure and equipment and any new physical capital we improvidently deploy without regard to global warming.

那么，摆在我们面前的挑战就显而易见、刻不容缓了。如果我们忽视了气候变化和依赖石油的风险，或不能左右来解决它们，那么我们终将被迫采取更加昂贵但又低效的应急方案。应对气候变化采用目光短浅、一切照旧的方法，将来应付越来越多的灾害损失就会变得更难，我们也会被

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迫放弃不顾全球变暖而投入的现有基础设施设备及任何新的物质资本。

19. Moreover, we would incur a very large opportunity cost, having lost out on the chance to become the economic leader in developing alternative and more efficient uses of energy. Instead, we should seize the moment of challenge and opportunity now to start building the low-carbon economy.

此外，我们将与成为开发替代能源和高效能源使用的历史机遇以及经济领导地位失之交臂。相反，我们应该抓住现在的挑战和机遇，开始创建低碳经济。

Unit 4

The Future of Artificial Intelligence

人工智能的未来

By 2050 robot “brains” based on computers that execute 100 trillion instructions per second will start rivaling human intelligence.

到2050 年，每秒能执行100 万亿次命令的机器人的“大脑”将开始与人脑争雄。

1. In recent years the mushrooming power, functionality and ubiquity of computers and the Internet have outstripped early forecasts about technology’s rate of advancement and usefulness in everyday life. Alert pundits now foresee a world saturated with powerful computer chips, which will increasingly insinuate themselves into our gadgets, dwellings, apparel and even our bodies. 13

近年来，计算机和互联网如雨后春笋般普及，无处不在且功能强大。他们的发展速度和用处远远超出了当年人们的预测。一些警觉的权威人士预言说未来世界将充满电脑芯片，它们将不断渗透到我们的小巧装置里，居所里，衣着上甚至我们的身体里。

2. Yet a closely related goal has remained stubbornly elusive. In stark contrast to the largely unanticipated explosion of completely to live up the predictions of the 1950s. In those days experts who were dazzled by the seemingly miraculous calculational ability of computers thought that if only the right software were written, computers could become the artificial brains of sophisticated autonomous robots. Within a decade or two, they believed, such robots would be cleaning our floors, mowing our lawns and, in general, eliminating drudgery from our lives.

但是，类似这样的目标仍很难实现。与超出预期的迅速迅猛发展成为主流的计算机形成鲜明对比的是，对机器人技术研发的所有努力甚至未能达到二十世纪五十年代对于机器人技术发展的预测。那时候，专家们为计算机看起来奇迹般的运算能力所惊叹，相信只要写出正确的软件，计算机就能成为复杂的自主机器人的人工大脑。他们相信，在十年或二十年内，这样的机器人将为我们清扫地板，修剪草坪，简而言之，它们将把我们从苦活累活中解脱出来。

3. Obviously, it hadn’t turned out that way. It is true that industrial robots have transformed the manufacture of automobiles, among other products. But that kind of automation is a far cry from the versatile, mobile, autonomous creations that so many scientists and engineers have hoped for. In pursuit of such robots, waves of researchers have grown disheartened and scores of start-up companies have gone out of business.

很明显的，机器人的发展并不像专家们所预言的那样。确实，除了很多产品之外，工业机器人

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的出现还改变了汽车的生产方式。但是这种自动化远远不及科学家和工程师们所希望的多功能、可移动、自主的机器人。在追求制造这种机器人的过程中，一波又一波的科学家失去了信心，许多的新兴公司也因其破产。

4. It is not the mechanical “body” that is unattainable; articulated arms and other moving mechanisms adequate for manual work already exist, as the industrial robots attest. Rather it is the computer-based artificial brain that is still well below the level of sophistication needed to build a humanlike robot.

并不是机器人的“身体”无法实现；关节灵活的机械手臂和其他可活动的机械早已经存在，工业机器人正是证明。真正无法企及的是以计算机为基础的人工“大脑”，目前的技术的复杂程度仍达不到建造一个类似人类的机器人。

5. Nevertheless, I am convinced that the decades-old dream of a useful, general-purpose autonomous robot will be realized in the not too distant future. In the near future we will see mobile robots as big as people but with cognitive abilities similar in many respects to those of a lizard. The machines will be capable of carrying out simple chores, such as vacuuming, dusting, delivering packages and taking out the garbage. By 2040, I believe, we will finally achieve the original goal of robotics and a thematic mainstay of science fiction: a freely moving machine with the intellectual capabilities of a human being.

不过，我仍然坚信，几十年来对高效的，多用途的自主机器人的梦想将在不远的将来实现。到那时，我们能看到和人类一样大小的机器人，但智力上在很多方面都类似蜥蜴。它们将能够执行简单的工作，比如吸尘，打扫，递送包裹，扔垃圾等。我相信，到2040年，我们将最终达到机器人

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技术的终极目标和科幻小说中的主题：一个具有人类智力水平的可自由移动的机器人。

Reasons for Optimism

乐观的理由

6. In light of what I have just described as a history of largely unfulfilled goals in robotics, why do I believe that rapid progress and stunning accomplishments are in the offing? My confidence is based on recent developments in electronics and software, as well as on my own observations of robots, computers and even insects, reptiles and other living things over the past 30 years.

考虑到我之前所说的在机器人技术历史上众多未达成的目标，为什么还相信机器人技术的快速发展和惊人成就很快就会到来呢？我的自信建立在电子技术和软件技术最近的发展上，以及我在过去的30 多年里对机器人，计算机，甚至是昆虫，爬行动物和其他生物的观察。

7. The single best reason for optimism is the soaring performance in recent years of mass-produced computers.

最好的理由是近年来大规模生产的计算机的突出表现。

8. In the 1990s computer power suitable for controlling a research robot shot through 10 million instructions per second（MIPS）, 100 MIPS and has lately reached 50,000 MIPS in a few high-end desktop computers with multiple processors.

在二十世纪九十年代，控制一个研究型机器人的计算机的运算能力从每秒1000 万次

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（10MIPS），提升到了100MIPS，而现在少数高端的具有多处理器的台式机就达到了50,000MIPS。

9. For example, in October 1995 an experimental vehicle called Navlab V crossed the U.S. from Washington, D.C., to San Diego, driving itself more than 95 percent of the time. The vehicle’s self-driving and navigational system was built around a 25-MIPS laptop based on a microprocessor by Sun Microsystems.

比方说，1995 年10 月，Navlab V，一台实验性的车辆，从华盛顿出发，穿越美国到达圣地亚哥，其中95%的时间都是自动驾驶的。这辆车的自动驾驶和导航系统是建立在一个运算能力在25MIPS 的笔记本电脑的微处理器上的，其处理器是由“太阳微系统”公司生产的。

10. Still, computers are no match today for humans in such functions as recognition and navigation. The explanation of this apparent paradox follows from the fact that the human brain, in its entirety, is not a true programmable, general-purpose computer (what computer scientists refer to as a universal machine; almost all computers nowadays are examples of such machines).

但时至今日，电脑在识别和导航功能上仍与人脑相去甚远。专家因此迷惑了多年，毕竟计算机在运算能力上远超人类。对于这个似非而是的事实的解释最终归结于一点，人脑从整体上说，并不是一个可编程的，多用途的计算机（有些计算机科学家称之为万用机；几乎所有当代的计算机都是这类机器的范例）。

11. To understand why this is requires an evolutionary perspective. To survive, our early ancestors had to do several things repeatedly and very well: locate food, escape predators, mate and protect offspring. Those tasks depended strongly on the brain’s

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ability to recognize and navigate. Honed by hundreds of millions of years of evolution, the brain became a kind of ultrasophisticated – but special-purpose – computer.

需要进化论的视角才能理解这种现象的原因。为了生存，我们的祖先不得不重复去做几件事情并努力将其做到最好：寻找事物，躲避食肉动物，交配、保护后代。这些任务对于大脑的识别和导航能力的要求很高。经过几百万年的进化，人脑成为了超级复杂但有特定目的的计算机。

12. The ability to do mathematical calculations, of course, was irrelevant for survival. Nevertheless, as language transformed human culture, at least a small part of our brains evolved into a universal machine of sorts. One of the hallmarks of such a machine is its ability to follow an arbitrary set of instructions, and with language, such instructions could be transmitted and carried out. But because we visualize numbers as complex shapes, write them down and perform other such functions, we process digits in a monumentally awkward and inefficient way. We use hundreds of billions of neurons to do in minutes what hundreds of them, specially “rewired” and arranged for calculation, could do in milliseconds.

数字运算的能力当然是和生存无关的。但是，语言改变了人类文化，因此至少人脑的一小部分进化成了某种通用机。这种机器的一个标志就是可以执行一组任意的命令，而通过语言，这样的命令就可以被转达进而被执行。但因为人类将数字想象成复杂的形状，将其写下并做些其他类似这样的事，所以导致人类以一种相当低效和难以操纵的方式来处理数据。人类用成百亿的神经元花好几分钟所作的运算，几百台专门为运算所设置的计算机在几毫秒内就能做完。

13. A tiny minority of people are born with the ability to do seemingly amazing mental calculations. In absolute terms, it’s not so amazing: they calculate at a rate

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perhaps 100times that of the average person. Computers, by comparison, are millions or billions of times faster.

有少数人天生具有看起来令人惊奇的心算能力。绝对来讲，其实这样的心算能力并没有多么好惊奇的。他们计算的速率大概是普通人的100 倍左右。而计算机，是常人的百万甚至千万倍。

Can Hardware Simulate Wetware?

硬件可以模拟人脑吗？

14. The challenge facing roboticists is to take general-purpose computers and program them to match the largely special-purpose human brain, with its ultraoptimized perceptual inheritance and other peculiar evolutionary traits. Today’s robot-controlling computers are much too feeble to be applied successfully in that role, but it is only a matter of time before they are up to the task.

机器人专家面临的挑战是给多功能计算机编程来与目的非常特定的人脑功能匹敌，包括其超优化的感知遗传及其他一些特有的进化特征。当今操控机器人的电脑还仍无力满足这样的需求，但胜任这项任务只是时间问题。

15. Implicit in my assertion that computers will eventually be capable of the same kind of perception, cognition and thought as humans is the idea that a sufficiently advanced and sophisticated artificial system – for example, an electronic one – can be made and programmed to do the same thing as the human nervous system, including the brain. This issue is controversial in some circles right now, and there is room for brilliant

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people to disagree.

我在对计算机最终将拥有和人类一样的感知、认知和思考能力的断言之中，不言自明地表达出这样一个想法，就是能够制造出一种相当尖端复杂的人工系统——如电子系统——并使其在编程之后能够执行和人类的神经系统（包括大脑）一样的功能。这个问题在一些领域颇具争议，欢迎有识之士持有异义。

16. At the crux of the matter is the question of whether biological structure and behavior arise entirely from physical law and whether, moreover, physical law is computable – that is to say, amenable to computer simulation. My view is that there is no good scientific evidence to negate either of these propositions. On the contrary, there are compelling indications that both are true.

问题的核心在于是否生物结构和生物行为完全建立在物理定律之上；是否物理定律可被计算，也就是说，可以被计算机模拟。我的观点是并没有充分的科学证据来否定这两项假设。相反却有很多不得不注意的迹象表面两项假设都是真的。

17. Molecular biology and neuroscience are steadily uncovering the physical mechanisms underlying life and mind but so far have addressed mainly the simpler mechanisms. Evidence that simple functions can be composed to produce the higher capabilities of nervous systems comes from programs that read, recognize speech, guide robot arms to assemble tight components by feel, classify chemicals by artificial smell and taste, reason about abstract matters, and so on. Of course, computers and robots today fall far short of broad human or even animal competence. But that situation is understandable in light of an analysis that concludes that today’s computers are only powerful enough to

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function like insect nervous systems. And, in my experience, robots do indeed perform like insects on simple tasks.

分子生物学和神经科学正在逐步解开生命和意识的基础，即物理机制的奥秘。但是目前只解释了一些简单的机制。来源于朗读、言语辨认、通过感觉指引机械手组装紧凑的元件、通过人造的嗅觉和味觉分辨化学物、思考抽象问题等一系列试验的证据表明，简单的功能可以被组合起来实现神经系统的更高功能。当然，当今的计算机和机器人还远远不能达到人类甚至是动物的能力，但考虑到前面所说的当今的计算机只具备像昆虫的神经系统一般的能力，这样的差距也就可以理解了。并且，根据我的经验，机器人执行一些简单的任务时确实像昆虫一样。

18. Ants, for example, can follow scent trails but become disoriented when the trail is interrupted. Moths follow pheromone trails and also use the moon for guidance. Similarly, many commercial robots can follow guide wires installed below the surface they move over, and some orient themselves using lasers that read bar codes on walls.

举个例子，蚂蚁，可以遵从气味的路线，但是当它的气味路线受到影响时就会迷路；蛾子跟随信息素路线并使用月亮作为导向。同样的，许多商务用机器人可以遵从预先铺设在地下的线路来移动，还有一些通过使用激光扫描墙上的条形码来导向。

19. If my assumption that greater computer power will eventually lead to human-level mental capabilities is true, we can expect robots to match and surpass the capacity of various animals and then finally humans as computer-processing rates rise sufficiently high. If on the other hand the assumption is wrong, we will someday find specific animal or human skills that elude implementation in robots even after they have enough computer power to match the whole brain. That would set the stage for a

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fascinating scientific challenge – to somehow isolate and identify the fundamental ability that brains have and that computers lack. But there is no evidence yet for such a missing principle.

如果我对于更强的计算机运算水平会最终达到等同于人类水平的思考能力的假设成立的话，我们就可以期待随着计算机处理速率达到相当高的速度时，机器人的能力达到并超越许多动物的能力，最终超越人类的水平。而如果这个假设不成立的话，我们在未来也会发现，即使在计算机运算能力已经达到人类水平的思考能力情况下，在机器人身上不能够执行的动物或人的某种能力。这将为更加迷人的科学挑战创造条件— 能分离并确认出人脑所拥有而计算机缺少的最根本的能力。但目前还没有证据证实有这样的情况。

20. The second proposition, that physical law is amenable to computer simulation, is increasingly beyond dispute. Scientists and engineers have already produced countless useful simulations, at various levels of abstraction and approximation, of everything from automobile crashes to the “color” forces that hold quarks and gluons together to make up protons and neutrons.

第二个假设，物理定律可以被计算机模拟这一点，是越来越毫无疑问了。科学家和工程师已经制造出了无数高效的模拟程序，包含从模拟车祸到模拟使夸克和胶子结合在一起组成质子和中子的“色彩”力量。→科学家和工程师已经在抽象和概算的不同层面，进行了无数次有效仿真，比如从模拟车祸到模拟“色彩”力量，色彩能使夸克和胶子结合构成质子和中子。

Fast Replay

快速重放

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21. Like competent but instinct-ruled reptiles, first-generation universal robots will handle only contingencies explicitly covered in their application programs. Unable to adapt to changing circumstances, they will often perform inefficiently or not at all.

就像拥有一定能力但为直觉所控制的爬行动物一样，第一代的通用机器人仅能处理它们的应用程序中所包含的任务。因为无法适应改变的环境，所以它们的工作可能很低效甚至根本无法工作。

22. A second generation of universal robot with a mouse like 100,000 MIPS will adapt as the first generation does not and will even be trainable. Besides application programs, such robots would host a suite of software “conditioning modules” that would generate positive and negative reinforcement signals in predefined circumstances. For example, doing jobs fast and keeping its batteries charged will be positive; hitting or breaking something will be negative. There will be other ways to accomplish each stage of an application program, from the minutely specific (grasp the handle underhand or overhand) to the broadly general (work indoors or outdoors). As jobs are repeated, alternatives that result in positive reinforcement will be favored, those with negative outcomes shunned. Slowly but surely, second-generation robots will work increasingly well.

第二代通用类机器人将具备像老鼠一般的100，000MIPS 的运算能力，因此可以做到第一代机器人所不能的，甚至可以被训练。除了应用程序以外，这种机器人将安装一套叫做“条件模块”的软件，这种软件在预设的环境下会生成肯定或否定的增强信号。举例来说，快速工作和保持电池充电的行为会得到肯定的信号；而碰撞或打碎东西得到否定信号。另外还有不同的方式来完成每个应用程序的过程，从特别精细的（比如向上还是向下抓把手）到较为宽泛的（比如在室内还是室外工作）都可以涵盖到。随着工作的重复，那些产生积极结果信号的行为将被肯定，而消极的结果会

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被避免。虽然缓慢，但第二代机器人一定会工作的越来越好。

23. A monkeylike five million MIPS will permit a third generation of robots to learn very quickly from mental rehearsals in simulations that model physical, cultural and psychological factors. Physical properties include shape, weight, strength, texture and appearance of things, and ways to handle them. Cultural aspects include a thing’s name, value, proper location and purpose. Psychological factors, applied to humans and robots alike, include goals, beliefs, feelings and preferences. Developing the simulators will be a huge undertaking involving thousands of programmers and experience-gathering robots. The simulation would track external events and tune its models to keep them faithful to reality. It would let a robot learn a skill by imitation and afford a kind of consciousness. Asked why there are candles on the table, a third-generation robot might consult its simulation of house, owner and self to reply that it put them there because its owner likes candlelit dinners and it likes to please its owner. Further queries would elicit more details about a simple inner mental life concerned only with concrete situations and people in its work area.

像猴子一样，拥有五百万MIPS 运算能力的第三代机器人，通过模拟中的思维演练，将能很快地模仿物理、文化和心理要素。物理属性包含形状、重量、力量、质地和事物的外表，还有处理它们的方式。文化方面包含事物的名称、价值、合适的位置和用途。心理因素，适用于人类和机器人，包括，目标、信仰、感觉和喜恶。制造模拟器将会是一项艰巨的任务，涉及成千上万的编成人员和试验用机器人。模拟将会追踪外部事件，调试模式使其适应现实需要。它可以使机器人通过模仿来学习技能并使其具备一定的意识。当被问到为什么桌子上有蜡烛的时候，第三代机器人会搜索其程序中对房间、主人还有自己的模拟程式并得出这样的回答，即，它把蜡烛放置在桌子上的原因是主人喜欢吃烛光晚餐而它想要取悦主人。更深层次的问题将会的到更多关于简单内心活动的一些细节，

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而这些内心活动只与具体情境和身处它所在区域的人有关。

24. Fourth-generation universal robots with a humanlike 100 million MIPS will be able to abstract and generalize. They will result from melding powerful reasoning programs to third-generation machines. These reasoning programs will be the far more sophisticated descendants of today’s theorem provers and expert systems, which mimic human reasoning to make medical diagnoses, schedule routes, make financial decisions, configure computer systems, analyze seismic data to locate oil deposits, and so on.

通用机器人具备像人一样的一亿MIPS 的运算能力，它们能够提取、概括信息。它们将强大的推理程序融合进了第三代机器人。这些推理程序是当今的定理证明程序和专业系统的更为复杂的后代，能够模仿人类的思维过程来做出医学诊断、路线计划、金融决策、计算机系统配置、地震数据分析以及定位原油矿藏等。

25. Properly educated, the resulting robots will become quite formidable. In fact, I am sure they will outperform us in any conceivable area of endeavor, intelligence or physical. Inevitably, such a development will lead to a fundamental restructuring of our society. Entire corporations will exist without any human employees or investors at all. Humans will play a pivotal role in formulating the intricate complex of laws that will govern corporate behavior. Ultimately, though, it is likely that our descendants will cease to work in the sense that we do now. They will probably occupy their days with a variety of social, recreational and artistic pursuits, not unlike today’s comfortable retirees or the wealthy leisure classes.

通过正确的教育，机器人将会变得相当令人惊叹。实际上，我确信在任何能想到的领域，不管

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是智力还是体力，机器人终将比人类做的更好。而这必然给社会带来重大的变革。整个公司将没有一位人类雇员或投资者。在制定复杂的用于管理公司行为的法规方面，人类将扮演相当重要的角色。但是最终，我们的后代也许不会像我们现在这样工作。他们的生活将充满了各种各样社交、休闲和艺术活动，就像当今过着舒适退休生活的人或富有又休闲的人们一样。

26. The path I’ve outlined roughly recapitulates the evolution of human intelligence – but 10 million times more rapidly. It suggests that robot intelligence will surpass our own well before 2050. In that case, mass-produced, fully educated robot scientists working diligently, cheaply, rapidly and increasingly effectively will ensure that most of what science knows in 2050 will have been discovered by our artificial progeny!

我所勾画的路线扼要的陈述了人类智能的发展——但比它的发展快一千万倍。在2050 年之前机器人将超越我们人类。如果那样的话，大量生产的、受到良好教育的机器人科学家勤奋的、廉价的、快速的、越来越高效的工作将保证2050 年大部分的科学发现都是我们的人工后代——机器人的功劳！

Unit 5

The Assessor of Success (adapted)

成功鉴定员（节选）

1. Hastings Beauchamp Morley sauntered across Union Square with a pitying look at the hundreds that lolled upon the park benches. They were a motley lot, he thought; the man with stolid, animal, unshaven faces; the women wriggling and self-conscious, twining

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and untwining their feet that hung four inches above the gravelled walks.

黑斯廷斯·比彻姆·莫利一边在联合广场上闲逛，一边怜悯地看着懒洋洋地倚着公园长椅的百余号人。这儿鱼龙混杂，他思忖着；男人目光呆滞、没个正行、胡子拉碴；女人有的自视不凡、走起路来一扭一摆，有的坐在石子路边的凳子上，两脚离地4 英寸，或是钩在一起，或是分开。

2. Were I Mr. Carnegie or Mr. Rockefeller I would put a few millions in my inside pocket and make an appointment with all the Park Commissioners (around the corner, if necessary), and arrange for benches in all the parks of the world low enough for women to sit upon, and rest their feet upon the ground. After that I might furnish libraries to towns that would pay for them, or build sanitariums for crank professors, and call them colleges, if I wanted to.

如果我是卡内基先生或洛克菲勒先生，我就把几百万揣进内兜，邀约所有管理公园的专员（有必要的话还包括街角那些），调低世界上所有公园的长椅，以便女士们能坐上去，脚也能够到地面歇歇。之后，我就为愿意出资的城镇配备图书馆，或给脾气古怪的教授们修建疗养院，只要我愿意，我把它们称之为大学也未尝不可。

3. Women's rights societies have been laboring for many years after equality with man. With what result? When they sit on a bench they must twist their ankles together and uncomfortably swing their highest French heels clear of earthly support. Begin at the bottom, ladies. Get your feet on the ground, and then rise to theories of mental equality.

男女平等以来女权社团辛勤奔忙了很多年。结果呢？坐在长椅上时，她们还不得不把脚踝扭做一处，没有任何支撑，难受地悬空起她们的法式高跟鞋。女士们，还是脚踏实地吧，先把脚放在地

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上，然后再上升到精神平等的理论高度。

4. Hastings Beauchamp Morley was carefully and neatly dressed. That was the result of an instinct due to his birth and breeding. It is denied us to look further into a man's bosom than the starch on his shirt front; so it is left to us only to recount his walks and conversation.

黑斯廷斯·比彻姆·莫利衣着讲究，整洁体面。那全倚赖于他的出身与教养。既然我们只能看到他上了浆的衬衣前襟，而看不到他的内心，那就还是谈论一下他这一路上所做的事和所说的话吧。

5. Morley had not a cent in his pockets; but he smiled pityingly at a hundred grimy, unfortunate ones who had no more, and who would have no more when the sun's first rays yellowed the tall paper-cutter building on the west side of the square. But Morley would have enough by then. Sundown had seen his pockets empty before; but sunrise had always seen them lined.

莫利兜里一分钱也没有；可他仍冲着那百余个肮脏的可怜人怜悯地微笑。他们一个子儿不比他多；就算太阳的第一道光芒映红了广场西边那座高高的裁纸大楼，他们还是不名一文。不过到那时莫利就有钱了。太阳下山时他口袋空空；但太阳升起时他总会钵满盆盈。

6. First he went to the house of a clergyman off Madison avenue and presented a forged letter of introduction that holily purported to issue from a pastorate in Indiana. This netted him $5 when backed up by a realistic romance of a delayed remittance. 他先去麦迪逊大街的一位牧师家呈递了一封伪造的信件，假称自己是由印第安纳州另一位牧师

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庄重地推荐给他的。迟到汇款的借口既现实又浪漫，这证明了他的身份，他也因此净赚了5 美元。

7. At the door of a darkened house two squares to the north Morley knocked with a peculiar sequence of raps. The door opened to the length of a six-inch chain, and the pompous, important black face of an African guardian imposed itself in the opening. Morley was admitted.

两个广场的北边有一个昏暗的房子，莫利走到门口，以一种奇怪的节奏开始敲门。门里挂着一个6 英寸的铁链，开了个缝。从门缝儿里露出一张高傲且权威味十足的黑面孔，这是一名黑人保安。莫利准入了。

8. In a third-story room, in an atmosphere opaque with smoke, he hung for ten minutes above a roulette wheel. Then downstairs he crept, and was out-sped by the important negro, jingling in his pocket the 40 cents in silver that remained to him of his five-dollar capital. At the corner he lingered, undecided.

三楼一个烟雾缭绕的房间里，他在赌盘旁待了十分钟。然后他灰溜溜地下了楼，被那个傲慢的黑人撵了出去，口袋里的40 美分叮当作响——5 美元资产就剩这么点了。街角躺着的是不想走又没拿定主意的人。

9. Across the street was a drug store, well lighted, sending forth gleams from the German silver and crystal of its soda fountain and glasses. Along came a youngster of five, headed for the dispensary, stepping high with the consequence of a big errand, possibly one to which his advancing age had earned him promotion. In his hand he clutched something tightly, publicly, proudly, conspicuously.

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街对面有家药店，里面很亮堂。店里德国产的银和水晶制的喷泉式苏打水饮水器和各式玻璃器皿闪烁着光芒。沿路有一个五岁的孩子正往药房走，昂首阔步，像是委以重任，可能是他长大了才得到这样的提拔。他紧紧地握着什么东西，很自豪，故意让这东西露出来，很显眼。

10. Morley stopped him with his winning smile and soft speech.

莫利露出了胜利的微笑，语调轻柔地。

11. \"Me?\" said the youngster. “I'm doin’ (going) to the drug ’tore (store) for mamma. She dave (gives) me a dollar to buy a bottle of med’cin (medicine).”

“是在跟我说话吗？”小孩儿用稚嫩的语调说，“我要……我妈妈派我去药店买药。妈妈给我一美元，买一瓶药。”

12. “Now, now, now!” said Morley. “Such a big man you are to be doing errands for mamma. I must go along with my little man to see that the cars don't run over him. And on the way we'll have some chocolates. Or would he rather have lemon drops?”

“哇！哇！哇！”莫利说，“要完成妈妈的任务，真是个大人物。我必须跟着我们的小绅士，以免车压到他。路上我们再来点巧克力或者柠檬糖怎么样？”

13. Morley entered the drug store leading the child by the hand. He presented the prescription that had been wrapped around the money.

莫利手拉着那个孩子走进药店。他拿出了裹在药方里的钱，把药方递了过去。

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14. On his face was a smile, predatory, parental, politic, profound.

他的脸上露出一种既贪婪又慈爱，既狡猾又高深的微笑。

15. “Aqua pura, one pint,” said he to the druggist. “Sodium chloride, ten grains. Fiat solution. And don't try to skin me, because I know all about the number of gallons of H2O in the Croton reservoir, and I always use the other ingredient on my potatoes.”

“纯水，一品脱，”他对药剂师说。“氯化钠，十格令。菲亚特溶液。别坑我，我知道克罗顿水库里的所有二氧化氢的所有成分含量，我种的土豆用的是其中的一种成分。”

（注释：此处用“二氧化氢”这样的术语，而不说“水”来显示自己学识渊博。）

16. “Fifteen cents,” said the druggist, with a wink after he had compounded the order. “I see you understand pharmacy. A dollar is the regular price.”

“15 美分，”药剂师说，把那些东西混合后使了一个眼色。“我知道你懂药。一美元是正常价。”

17. “To gulls,” said Morley, smilingly.

“给爱上当受骗的人定的价吧，”莫利笑着说。

18. He settled the wrapped bottle carefully in the child's arms and escorted him to the corner. In his own pocket he dropped the 85 cents accruing to him by virtue of his chemical knowledge.

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他小心地把包好的瓶子放进孩子怀里，护送他到街角。凭借自己的化学知识赚到的那85美分则进入了他的口袋。

19. “Look out for the cars, sonny,” he said, cheerfully, to his small victim.

“小心车，小弟弟，”他开心地对着他的小受害者说。

20. Two street cars suddenly swooped in opposite directions upon the youngster. Morley dashed between them and pinned the infantile messenger by the neck, holding him in safety. Then from the corner of his street he sent him on his way, swindled, happy, and sticky with vile, cheap candy from the Italian’s fruit stand.

相对开来的两辆车突然疾驰驶向这个孩子。莫利冲过去，搂住小家伙的脖子，保护他的安全。然后，还是在那个街角，他送他上路了。这孩子被骗了还很开心，嘴里粘着意大利水果摊儿买来的廉价劣质糖。

21. Morley went to a restaurant and ordered a sirloin and a pint of inexpensive Chateau Breuille. He laughed noiselessly, but so genuinely that the waiter ventured to premise that good news had come his way.

莫利去了一家餐厅，点了一份上等的牛排和一品脱廉价的博莱庄园红酒。他无声地笑笑，是那种发自内心的喜悦，这使得侍应生大胆推测他交了好运。

22. “Why, no,” said Morley, who seldom held conversation with any one. “It is not that. It is something else that amuses me. Do you know what three divisions of people are easiest to over-reach in transactions of all kinds?”

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“啊，没有，”和任何人都很少交谈的莫利说。“不是那样的。我笑的是别的事情。你知道在所有交易中哪三种人最容易上当？”

23. “Sure,” said the waiter, calculating the size of the tip promised by the careful knot of Morley’s tie; “there’s the buyers from the dry goods stores in the South during August, and honeymooners from Staten Island, and” – “Wrong!” said Morley, chuckling happily. “The answer is just – men, women and children. The world – well, say New York and as far as summer boarders can swim out from Long Island – is full of greenhorns. Two minutes longer on the broiler would have made this steak fit to be eaten by a gentleman, Francois.”

“当然知道，”侍应生一边说，一边在心里根据莫利仔细打的领结盘算能拿多少小费；“有八月从南方干货店来购物的人、有从史泰登岛来度蜜月的，有……”——“错！”莫利愉快地笑道。“答案是——男人，女人和小孩。整个世界——好吧，就说纽约，最远就算夏天的寄宿生能从长岛游到的地方——全是新手。弗朗索瓦，再多烤两分钟，这牛排就能让绅士吃下去了。”

24. Morley went out leisurely and stood on a corner where two tradeful arteries of the city cross. With a solitary dime in his pocket, he stood on the curb watching with confident, cynical, smiling eyes the tides of people that flowed past him. Into that stream he must cast his net and draw fish for his further sustenance and need. Good Izaak Walton had not the half of his self-reliance and bait-lore. 莫利轻松地走了出去，在市里两条贸易动脉交汇的路口站住了脚步。他立在路沿上，口袋里只剩孤零零的一毛钱，却以一种自信、玩世不恭、而又充满笑意的目光注视着从他身旁川流而过的人群。从那人群中他必须撒网钓鱼以继续维生。（创作《高明的垂钓者》这本书的作家）艾萨克·沃顿

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连他一半的自给自足精神及鱼饵知识都没有。连他一半的自给自足精神及鱼饵知识都没有。

25. An old man with an ill-fitting suit, a straggling gray beard and a corpulent umbrella hopped from the conglomeration of cabs and street cars to the sidewalk at Morley’s side.

一个灰须虬髯，穿着不合身的西服，手拿臃肿雨伞的老人从一大堆出租车和私家车中冒了出来，向莫利这边的人行道走来。

26. “Stranger,” said he, “excuse me for troubling you, but do you know anybody in this here town named Solomon Smothers? He’s my son, and I’ve come down from Ellenville to visit him. Be darned if I know what I done with his street and number.”

“好心人，”他说，“冒昧打扰一下，你知道这个城镇里谁叫所罗门·斯莫瑟斯？他是我儿子，我从埃伦维尔来看他。真该死，我不知道把他的住址弄到哪去了。”

27. “I do not, sir,” said Morley, half closing his eyes to veil the joy in them. “You had better apply to the police.”

“我不知道，先生，”莫利半闭着眼睛以掩盖喜悦之光，说到，“你最好找。”

28. “The police!” said the old man. “I ain't done nothin’ to call in the police about. I just come down to see Ben. He lives in a five-story house, he writes me. If you know anybody by that name and could” – “I told you I did not,” said Morley, coldly. “I know no one by the name of Smithers, and I advise you to” – “Smothers not Smithers,” interrupted the old man hopefully. “A heavy-sot man, sandy complected, about

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twenty-nine, two front teeth out, about five foot” – “Oh, ‘Smothers!’” exclaimed Morley. “Sol Smothers? Why, he lives in the next house to me. I thought you said ‘Smithers.’”

“！”老人说，“我什么都没做，干嘛叫。我就是来看本的。他住在一个有五层的房里，他写信给我这么说的。你要是知道谁叫那个名字，能……”——“给你说了不知道，”莫利冷冷地说，“我认识的人里没人姓‘史密瑟斯’的，我建议你……”——“是‘斯莫瑟斯’，不是‘史密瑟斯’，”老人满怀期待地打断他，“酒鬼一个，沙子肤色，大概二十九岁，两个门牙外呲，差不多五英尺”——“哦，‘斯莫瑟斯!’”莫利喊道。“所罗门·斯莫瑟斯？那怎么能不知道呢，他住在我隔壁。我以为你说的是‘史密瑟斯’。”

29. “The Bishop of Long Island,” said Morley, “was to meet me here at 8 to dine with me at the Kingfishers’ Club. But I can’t leave the father of my friend Sol Smothers alone on the street. By St. Swithin, Mr. Smothers, we Wall Street men have to work! Tired is no name for it! I was about to step across to the other corner and have a glass of ginger ale with a dash of sherry when you approached me. You must let me take you to Sol’s house, Mr. Smothers. But, before we take the car I hope you will join me in…”

“长岛的主教，”莫利说，“准备八点在这里见我，一起去翠鸟俱乐部吃饭。但我不能把我朋友所罗门·斯莫瑟斯的父亲一个人留在街上。斯莫瑟斯先生，我的天哪，我们华尔街人得工作！没办法喊叫累！你来我身边时，我正准备过马路去那个角落喝上一杯加点雪利酒的姜汁啤酒。你一定要让我把你送到所罗门家，斯莫瑟斯先生。不过，在我们上车前，我希望你能和我一起……”

30. An hour later Morley seated himself on the end of a quiet bench in Madison Square, with a twenty-five-cent cigar between his lips and $140 in deeply creased bills in

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his inside pocket. Content, light-hearted, ironical, keenly philosophic, he watched the moon drifting in and out amidst a maze of flying clouds. An old, ragged man with a low-bowed head sat at the other end of the bench.

一小时以后，莫利坐在麦迪逊广场长椅的一端，嘴上叼着根25 美分的雪茄，内兜里放着皱巴巴的140 美元钞票。他带着满意、轻松的心情，以讽刺味、哲学味十足的目光，看着月亮在穿梭的流云间忽明忽暗。长椅另一端坐着的是一个衣着破旧，头深深低垂的老人。

31. Presently the old man stirred and looked at his bench companion. In Morley’s appearance he seemed to recognize something superior to the usual nightly occupants of the benches.

现在，老人一边内心做着斗争，一边看着长椅上的伙伴。从莫利的外表看，老人好像看出来他比一般夜宿长椅上的人要高出一等。

32. “Kind sir,” he whined, “if you could spare a dime or even a few pennies to one who…”

“好心的先生，”他啜泣道，“如果您能分一毛钱甚至几便士给……”

33. Morley cut short his stereotyped appeal by throwing him a dollar.

莫利打断了他没有新意的祈求，扔给他一美元。

34. “God bless you!” said the old man. “I’ve been trying to find work for…”

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“上帝保佑您！”老人说。“我一直在找工作，好让……”

35. “Work!” echoed Morley with his ringing laugh. “You are a fool, my friend. The world is a rock to you, no doubt; but you must be an Aaron and smite it with your rod. Then things better than water will gush out of it for you. That is what the world is for. It gives to me whatever I want from it.”

“工作！”莫利重复着，响亮地笑了出来。“你是个傻子，我的朋友。显然这世界对你来说是块岩石；但你得是亚伦，用你的手杖击打它。然后事情就变好了，水为你涌了出来。这就是世界存在的目的。我想要什么都能从中得到。”

36. “God has blessed you,” said the old man. “It is only work that I have known. And now I can get no more.”

“上帝曾保佑过你，”老人说。“我所知道的就是工作。现在我什么工作也找不到。”

37. “I must go home,” said Morley, rising and buttoning his coat. “I stopped here only for a smoke. I hope you may find work.”

“我得回家了，”莫利说着，起身扣扣子。“我在这停下，不过是为吸根烟。希望你能找到工作。”

38. “May your kindness be rewarded this night,” said the old man.

“希望你的好心今晚能有回报，”老人说。

39. “Oh,” said Morley, “you have your wish already. I am satisfied. I think good

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luck follows me like a dog. I am for yonder bright hotel across the square for the night. And what a moon that is lighting up the city to-night. I think no one enjoys the moonlight and such little things as I do. Well, a good-night to you.” Morley walked to the corner where he would cross to his hotel. He blew slow streams of smoke from his cigar heavenward. A policeman passing saluted to his benign nod. What a fine moon it was.

“哦，”莫利说，“你的愿望已经实现了。我很满意。在我看来，我总是幸运儿。我今晚要去广场对面那边一家明亮的酒店。今晚的月光如此皎洁，照亮了整个城市。我想没人会像我一样欣赏像月光这样微小的事物吧。好了，祝你晚安。”莫利走向街角，准备过马路去酒店。烟缕从他所吸的雪茄中徐徐飘升。一个路过，莫利向他友好地点头，给他回敬了个礼。月亮多么美好啊。

40. The clock struck nine as a girl just entering womanhood stopped on the corner waiting for the approaching car. She was hurrying as if homeward from employment or delay. Her eyes were clear and pure, she was dressed in simple white, she looked eagerly for the car and neither to the right nor the left.

九点的钟声敲响了，一个刚步入成年的少妇在街角停下，等待一辆向她开来的车。她好像因为工作或是有事耽误回家晚了正急着赶路。她的眼神清澈而纯净，衣着纯白。她急切地盯着那辆驶近的车，并没有向左右两边看。

41. Morley knew her. Eight years before he had sat on the same bench with her at school. There had been no sentiment between them—nothing but the friendship of innocent days.

莫利认识她。八年前，他就是和这个女孩在同所学校，坐在同条长椅上一起学习。他们间没有

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男女之情——有的不过是纯真年代的拳拳友谊。

42. But he turned down the side street to a quiet spot and laid his suddenly burning face against the cool iron of a lamp-post, and said dully: “God! I wish I could die.”

但他还是走到了路边街道一个安静的地方，把突然灼烫的脸贴在灯柱冰冷的铁皮上，黯然地说：“上帝啊！我希望我能死去。”

Unit 7

A TV Critic in the Post-TV World

后电视世界的电视评论家

James Poniewozik

詹姆士·波尼沃泽克

1. The day after thanksgiving, my TiVo died. Because it doubles as my cable box, this meant that for the week it took to get a replacement, my TV was dead as well. This would be a tragic circumstance for most Americans. But for a TV critic, it was a blow to my livelihood. I was like a cotton farmer after a weevil infestation. I was cut off from the main pipeline of American media life.

感恩节后的第一天，我的数字录像设备坏了。因为它也兼具我的有线电视盒的功能，这就意味着在用来替换它的这一周里，我的电视机也不能用了。这种情形对大部分美国人来说都是痛苦不堪

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的。而对一个电视评论家而言，这则是对生计的一个打击。我就如同一个棉花遭受了象鼻虫侵害的棉农一般，惨不可言。我与美国媒体界一下子断了联系。

2. Or I would have been, a couple of years ago. Now, however, my situation offered a learning experience in TV-free TV. I had no cable, but I had DSL and a houseful of gizmos with screens: desktop, laptop, cell phone. Could I make do with them?

也许在几年前我会这么惨。然而现在，这样的情形则使我有机会体验没有电视而又能观看电视节目的感觉。我没有有线电视，但是我有数字用户线路，还有一屋子带屏幕的小设备，像台式电脑，笔记本电脑，手机等等。我能玩转它们吗？

3. Plenty of my countrymen do. Through necessity, I was entering a club more viewers are joining by choice: the posttelevision society. Some download TV to avoid ads. Some Netflix series so they can watch them in one big marathon. Some like the convenience, some the portability. Some are cutting their cable or satellite bills to save money in hard times. Millions of others use online video as a backup — Huluing dramas they missed live, watching March Madness on CBSSports.com or Wimbledon on ESPN360. (Preferably at work.)

我的很多同胞们就能。现在，越来越多的人特意加入到“后电视社会”这个俱乐部之中了，因为迫不得已，我也成了他们当中的一员。在这里，一些人下载电视来避开广告插入。一些人通过Netflix 在线租赁电视剧，以便一口气看完。有些人喜欢方便，有些人热衷于轻便。还有一些人在困难时期为了节省资金而缩减了有线或卫星电视账单支出。还有数百万其他人把网上视频当作备份来使用：在Hulu 网站上收看错过的电视节目，在CBS 运动网站上收看“三月疯”或者是在ESPN360 上收看温布尔登国际网球赛。（能在工作时收看更妙。）

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4. The business implications of all this are huge. Who will get paid for the TV of the future? (With online piracy rampant, will anyone get paid at all?) How do you replace TV-commercial revenue? And how do you measure a hit when more and more of the audience is watching on computers, on DVD players, via video-game consoles or on the screen of the bike at the gym?

这一切隐含着巨大的商业意义。谁将会从未来的电视中获利？（随着网上剽窃的日益猖狂，还会有人获利吗？）电视广告的收益将用什么来代替？当越来越多的观众使用电脑，DVD 机，并且通过视频游戏机或者是健身房中自行车上的屏幕观看节目时，该如何估量一个节目的受欢迎程度？

5. These are all important questions. But not for me. Mine were: Could I satisfactorily watch TV without a box? How would it change my experience? And more broadly, now that TV (the medium) is divorced from the television (the machine), now that video is as portable as a Grisham paperback, now that big-budget series can be blog-embedded and e-mailed just like your YouTube video of your cat falling asleep — what are we even talking about when we talk about TV?

这些问题非常重要。但对我却不是。我的问题是：我能在没有有线电视盒的情况下满意地看电视吗？它会怎么样改变我的经验？更广泛地讲，既然电视（媒体）已经和电视机（机器）分离，既然视频已经和格雷歇的平装本小说一样便于携带，既然大预算制作的系列剧可以像你上传到YouTube 上的爱猫打盹的视频一样被植入到博客中或者是被电子邮寄——当我们谈论电视的时候我们究竟在谈什么？

My TV Is Dead. Long Live TV!

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我的电视坏了，电视万岁！

6. First hurdle first: Online video has gotten much better since the days of watching a jerky postage stamp over the din of your hard drive whirring like an espresso grinder. While my plasma monolith sat mute, I watched 30 Rock in high-quality video on my laptop through Hulu.com My iPhone doubled as a wireless video device. (My kids were already using it to sample YouTube's vast library of homemade Lego Star Wars animations.) By downloading free apps like Joost and Truveo, I could use its brilliantly lit display — a munchkin plasma screen — to watch last night's Daily Show and Gilmore Girls reruns. Much of what I couldn't get free, I could buy from iTunes and carry with me. I watched Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles on the subway, The Office in my office.

首先考虑第一个困难: 与那些看着一张邮票因硬盘像咖啡研磨机那样急速旋转所发出的杂音而上下震动的日子相比，现在的网上视频已经优化很多了。我的等离子电视静默期间，我在手提电脑上观看Hulu 网上高清版的《我为喜剧狂》。我的iPhone 手机也兼作无线视频设备。（我的孩子们已经在用它来试玩Youtube 网站上自制的《乐高星球大战》卡通版的游戏库了）。通过下载如Joost 和Truveo 等免费软件，我可以使用它出色的光屏，也就是一个小型的等离子显示屏，来观看昨晚的《每日秀》和《吉尔莫女孩》的重播。而很多需要付费的节目，我可以通过iTune 购买，然后随身携带。我在地铁上看观看电视剧《终结者外传：莎拉转》，萨拉康纳编年史，在办公室里观看《办公室》。

7. Some things were unavailable — quit being stingy with the Top Chef, Bravo! — but what I lost in choice I made up for in serendipity. I downloaded video podcasts from Cook’s Illustrated, watched Rob Corddry’s Web comedy Children's Hospital and rediscovered the cult comedy Strangers with Candy (with a pre-Daily Show Stephen

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Colbert) because it turned up randomly through the Joost app on my iPhone.

有些节目是找不到的——《顶级厨师，棒极了！》这样的节目少得可怜——但是我在没得可选的同时，却得到了一些意想不到的东西。我从酷客的图片中下载了视频广播，观看了Rob Corddry 网上的喜剧《儿童医院》，又重新观看了奇异喜剧《陌生人的糖果》（其中一名演员为做《每日秀》之前的史蒂芬·克伯特）。而这个奇异喜剧是通过我iPhone上的Joost 软件随机出现的。

8. As for live TV, I learned that cell-phone companies are glad to provide it. I test-drove the Flo TV service — one of several cell-TV options — on an AT&T LG phone, complete with a tiny retractable antenna that made it look like something you'd see in Couch Potato Barbie's living room. I set the tiny screen on a kitchen shelf and watched MTV as I peeled carrots. I tuned it to Morning Joe and balanced it inside my medicine cabinet, discovering an exciting new way to cut myself while shaving. So long as I had a signal and battery juice, I could go shopping, take the bus or go to a kids’ soccer game and never, God help me, be out of reach of Wolf Blitzer.

至于电视直播，我知道手机公司是很愿意提供这项服务的。我曾在AT&TLG 手机上试用过Flo 电视服务（手机电视服务中的一种），这种手机带有一种可收缩的微型天线（这种天线类似于人们在沙发土豆芭比的起居室中看到的那种东西）。我把这个微型屏幕放在厨房的架子上，一边刮土豆皮一边观看全球音乐电视台的节目。我把它放在药柜里，转到了“上午乔”这台节目，这让我发现了一种令我兴奋不已的刮胡子时割伤自己的新方法。只要我还有信号器和电池，我就可以去购物、乘公共汽车或是看孩子们足球比赛，而不耽误收看Wolf Blitzer 主持的新闻节目。

9. Was it possible to replace TV? Sure. (The real question is how to get away from it.) And that may change TV as a cultural force.

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电视有可能被替代吗？当然。（真正的问题是如何远离它）。而那样会改变作为一种文化力量的电视。

10. For a good half-century, “watching TV” meant one thing. It was something you did at home, with friends or family, in front of a stationary machine in a dedicated room, preferably with snack chips. You experienced a broadcast exactly when and how millions of others did — same Bat-time, same Bat-channel — or you did not experience it at all. And unless you got proactive with a VCR, you did not copy, carry or remix what you saw. This was why mass media were culturally unifying (or homogenizing): those moments that mattered, we all saw in exactly the same way.

整整半个世纪，“看电视”意味着一件事情。这件事一般都是在家里与朋友或是家人一起，而且是在一个专用房间里的固定电器前完成的。如果加上小吃的话，那是再好不过了。你和数以百万计的人们在同一时间，以同样的方式——也就是“相同的时刻，相同的频道”——体验着收看电视，要不就什么也体验不到。而且，除非你有一台VCR，否则你无法拷贝、携带或重新混合制作你看过的节目：那些至关重要的时刻，我们以同种方式见证了。

11. Not anymore. Today TV broadcasts are just starting points, raw material to be curated in a collective online canon. During the election, I was immersed in political news and comedy, but I saw only a fraction of this material — interviews, skits, Joe the Plumber encounters — on a television. I saw bits embedded on blogs and on YouTube. I saw them straight up, or edited and surrounded by comments. If I saw the Katie Couric interview with Sarah Palin on the liberal website Talking Points Memo and you saw it on the conservative Townhall.com, did we really see the same program as each other — or as the shrinking number of viewers who still watch the 6:30 news?

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再也没有这样的事了。现如今，电视播放只是一个开端，只是提供了一些将通过网上规则来组织的原材料。选举期间，我沉浸到了政治新闻和政治喜剧当中，但是我只在电视上看了这类材料的一小部分——采访，短剧，和水管工乔的相遇。我看了一些被公布到博客上和YouTube 网上的材料。这些材料或者直接原封不动地放在网上，或者被编辑，或者被评论包围了。如果我是在自由主义网站“谈话要点备忘录”上看凯蒂·库里克对萨拉·佩林的采访，而你却是在保守的Townhall 网站上看，那么我们彼此，或者说与那些数量虽不断减少，但是却仍旧坚持观看6：30 新闻的那些人真的看的是一样的节目吗？

12. More people watched Tina Fey’s takedown of Palin online than on Saturday Night Live. And well they should. Why sit through 90 minutes waiting for the good bits when an army of online editors will separate the wit from the chaff? This isn’t just a knock on SNL. The View, the nightly news — they’re all albums, which the Web breaks down into singles.

在网上观看蒂娜·菲羞辱佩林的人数超过了观看《周六夜现场》的人数。而这是理所应当的。当一批网上编辑能够从那些无聊的场景中抽出经典瞬间时，为什么人们还必须要一直坐90 分钟来等待那些精彩片段呢？这不仅对《周六夜现场》是一个冲击。The View、午夜新闻——这些节目就像是唱片，网络把它们分解成单曲了。

13. That brings us to a truism about online video: it rewards brevity and scatters attention. That's true to an extent. Five to seven minutes seem to be the sweet spot for a webisode; “Baby Panda Sneezes” loses its magic after about 11 seconds. But a funny thing happened in my cable-free week: I found myself paying closer attention to the TV shows I watched online.

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这使我们明确了一个关于在线视频的真理：它嘉奖简洁而分散注意力。这在一定程度上是真实的。对网络剧来说，五到七分钟之间是最吸引人的； “熊猫宝宝打喷嚏”的视频只在11 秒后就失去了吸引力。但是，在我没有有线电视盒的那一周里，发生了一个有趣的事情：我发现我在网上观看电视节目时的注意力更加集中。

14. Here’s the important physical fact that separates online from off-line TV: you’re holding something. Watching old-school TV, you flop on the couch and let the medium wash over you. New school, you hold a screen in your hand, balance a laptop or sit at a desk. There’s a small but constant effort, the tiniest bit of physical feedback.

这是一个重要的把网络电视和网下电视区分开来的身体事实：你在拿着什么东西。看老式电视的时候，你会扑到沙发上，让这个媒体扑面而来。而看新式电视时，你手里拿着屏幕，把笔记本电脑放稳或者坐在台式电脑跟前。这需要很小却不断的努力，极其微小的身体反馈。

15. This makes me a much more impatient viewer. If a video doesn’t grab me immediately, I kill it. But when a show does engage me, the connection is deeper. The wide-screen image is a foot or two from my face, filling my field of vision. The connection is tactile and intimate. As you lean in, focusing physically and mentally on, say, an episode of The Wire, watching becomes something more like reading.

这使得我成为一个更急躁的观众。如果一段视频无法立即吸引我，我就不再看它。但是当一个节目确实吸引我时，这种联系就会更深。宽银幕的影像离我的脸只有一两英尺远，它充满了我的视野。这种联系是可以触知的，是亲密的。当你向前靠，身心都集中在，比如说，《火线》的某一集时，看电视就变得更像是读书了。

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16. I apologize to all the English teachers to whom I have just given aneurysms. But the watching-as-reading analogy is true in more ways than one. Whereas channel-surfing is like turning on a faucet, finding a show online is more like rummaging through a new-and-used bookstore, where House is shelved next to Hill Street Blues.

如果我的上述论断让教授英语的老师怒火中烧的话，我很抱歉。但是看电视像读书的这种比拟不仅仅是在一个方面，而是在很多方面都是真的。如果说不断变换电视频道就像开水龙头的话，那么在网上发现一个电视节目更像是在一个新旧书店里翻寻，那里并排放着《豪斯医生》和《山街蓝调》。

17. Like reading, viewing online TV is more solitary. You don’t gather the family around your MacBook to watch the Super Bowl. Yet in some ways it’s more social. There’s no online-video TV Guide to rely on — though some start-ups, like eGuiders.com are trying to create one — so your social connections become your TV guide. And the same interactivity that enhances regular TV-watching is even more immediate with laptop in hand. When I watch Lost, I rush to write a blog post — not so much to get my thoughts out as to see the comments fill and find out what other people thought. When the show is over, it’s just begun.

像读书一样，在线观看电视很孤独。这是因为你不会把家人聚集在你的麦金塔电脑周围观看超级碗。然而，在某些方面它更显得具有社会性。不能依靠电视指南（尽管像eGuiders网站这样的起步企业试图创建一个）的话，你的社会关系就会成为你的电视指南。促使你经常收看电视的互动性当笔记本电脑在手时甚至更加直接。当我看《迷失》的时候，我快速写了一个博客帖子 ——不仅仅是为了写出自己的想法，更是为了浏览上面的评论以了解其他人的想法。当剧集结束的时候，一切才刚开始。

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Big Screen, Little Screen

大屏幕，小屏幕

18. Does this mean I’m ready to abandon that video altar in my living room? Oh, God, no. When my TiVo box was finally replaced, I ran back to my big-screen TV like a child reunited with his mother. (Not as fast as my kids, who quickly began TiVoing a new stash of Clone Wars episodes.)

这是否意味着我准备丢弃客厅里的那个摆放电视的圣坛呢？哦，上帝，绝不。当我的TiVo终于回家的时候，我就像一个与母亲团聚的孩子那样冲向我的大屏幕电视。（没有我的孩子们快，他们快速开始搜索《克隆战争》新的剧集。）

19. But what we once called the “small screen” is fading away. We'll have tiny screens and giant screens: online devices and ever cheaper flat-screen video walls. To me, lush cinematic shows like Big Love and Mad Men need a big canvas; for others, it’s football that demands the real estate. Some shows are more interchangeable. I was not surprised to find that MTV’s The Hills, with its sleek visuals and forgettable dialogue, is perfectly suited to the bauble-like screen of the iPhone.

但那些我们曾经称为“小屏幕”的电视正在逐渐消失。我们将会有微型屏幕和巨型屏幕：网络设备和越来越便宜的平板电视墙。对我来说，画面丰富的电视剧，如《大爱》与《广告狂人》，需要大的画面；对他人而言，只有橄榄球才要求大荧幕。一些电视剧更具有变通性。MTV推出的《好莱坞女孩》虽然有时髦的视觉效果和令人难忘的对话，我却毫不惊讶地发现它非常适于在iPhone 的小屏幕播放。

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20. So some shows will be big and grand for the giant screen. Other shows, like Comedy Central’s on-and off-line hits, will thrive on both platforms. Producers will start conceiving series both as whole entities and repurposable parts — like the Jan. 31 SNL skit involving Pepsi that ran the next night as a Super Bowl ad for Pepsi.

有些电视剧是适合大屏幕的宏大制作。其他节目，像喜剧中心频道的在线和离线的轰动剧目，在这两种平台上都将会蓬勃发展。制作人将开始把系列剧既作为整体也作为可更改用途的部分来构思——如一月三十一日《周六夜现场》短剧节目涉及的百事可乐，第二天晚上则是作为超级碗中百事可乐的广告来播放的。

21. Media messages will be tailored both ways: already, President Obama is doing network TV to broadcast messages wide, and online videos for a more intimate, fireside-chat connection. And as more people watch traditional TV on the tiny screen and online video on the big one, more will jump the boundaries. Collegehumor.com just debuted a show on MTV, while this spring ABC premieres In the Motherhood, a sitcom based on a webisode series.

制作媒体信息有两种方式：奥巴马总统通过电视向大众传播信息，而用在线视频进行一种更加亲密，像在随意聊天一样的联系。随着越来越多的人喜欢在微型屏上观看传统的电视节目，而在大屏幕上观看在线视频，许多媒体信息将会越过界限。Collegehumor 网站刚在MTV 电视台上首次推出了一个电视剧，基于一个网络剧的系列情景喜剧《母爱之道》今春则在ABC 电视台首映了。

22. All this may change traditional TV, but the tiny screen could also revive genres. For a decade, sitcoms have struggled on big networks. But online, few offerings do as well as humor. Be it funnyordie.com or the faux Japanese talk series Gorgeous Tiny Chicken

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Machine Show, people want the tiny screen to make them laugh.

这一切都可能改变传统电视，但是微型屏也可以使一些电视剧类型复活。十年来，情景喜剧一直在大电视台苦苦挣扎。但是在网上，很少有什么可以和幽默相媲美。不论是funnyordie 网站，还是仿日剧《华丽的小鸡肉机》，人们希望微型屏能逗他们笑。

23. Some would argue that that’s a matter of scale – that it’s impossible to be moved by something in a 4-in. (10 cm) video window. I'm not so sure. Hunched over my tiny screens lately, I’ve found myself riveted by Battlestar Galactica, provoked by a YouTube animation about the credit crisis and verklempt over an old video I posted of my son blowing bubbles in the bathtub. Big screen and tiny may have their differences, but where there’s engagement, there’s emotion. The screen that matters most is still the one where the story lingers and replays, inside your head.

有人会说，这是一个大小的问题 —— 4 英寸的视频窗口所播放的东西是不可能触动人的。我不这样认为。最近窝在我的微型屏幕前，我发现自己完全被《银河战星》所吸引，受到YouTube 上一个关于信贷危机的动画片的煽动，被我曾经上传的儿子在浴缸里吹泡泡的视频深深感动。大屏幕和微型屏幕可能有所不同，但只要投入了，就会有情感。最重要的仍是哪个屏幕能够让故事在你的脑海里留下深深的挥之不去的烙印。

Unit 8

Not Just for Tree Huggers

环保不是唯一目标

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1. Rob Moody didn’t set out to be a builder. After graduating from college with a biology major, he began work as an environmental-science teacher in Asheville, N.C. On weekends, though, he spent long hours fixing up the classic shingle-style home his family had owned for nearly a century. Then, after seven years in cinder-block classrooms, he decided to make a change. “My love for old houses fell together with my love for the environment,” says Moody, 34, who launched The EcoBuilders to construct environmentally friendly houses. Today Moody’s foremen drive pickup trucks that run on used grease from fast-food fryers. And whether he’s building new homes or renovating old ones, he insulates them to the hilt, uses sustainable materials and recycles so much debris that he requires only the smallest Dumpsters. Clients love the approach. “We doubled production last year, and we’ll probably double again this year,” Moody says.

罗伯·穆迪开始并不打算成为一位建筑家。从大学的生物专业毕业之后，作为一名环境科学教师，他开始在北卡罗莱纳州阿什维尔市工作。然而，在周末他会花很长时间去修缮那套他的家人已经拥有了近一个世纪的典型的木瓦风格的房子。随后，在用煤渣砌块建造的教室里工作7年以后，他决定做出改变。34岁的穆迪说：“我对老房子的热爱伴随着对环境的爱护”。他发动生态建筑家公司兴建有利于环境的房子。现在，穆迪的工头开着的轻型小货车是使用快餐店炸锅里用过的动物油脂作为燃料的。并且无论他正在建设的新房子还是翻新旧的住宅，他使它们完全的保温隔热、隔音，并且使用可持续的材料和循环利用太多的碎小材料，所以产生的垃圾少，只需要最小的垃圾车搬运。客户喜欢这种方法。穆迪说：“去年我们的产量翻了一番，今年可能会再翻一番”。

2. The predominant color in the building industry right now is red, not green. America’s housing markets remain in free fall, as the foreclosure crisis continues and more homeowners discover their mortgage debt exceeds the value of their house. Last year the average home builder laid off a quarter of its employees; this year the industry

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estimates it will sell just 632,000 new homes, its lowest total since 1992. But amid this gloom, there’s buzz about consumers’ shifting demand toward “green homes”—and how builders with this expertise remain busy despite the bust. In a 2007 survey by the National Association of Home Builders, home buyers said they’d be willing to spend an additional $8,9 on a home if it could cut their utility bills. Throughout the industry, there’s a sense that consumers have finally reached a tipping point. “It’s taken almost as a fait accompli, that green building is where the market is headed,” says Michelle Moore, senior vice president at the U.S. Green Building Council.

现在建筑行业的主导颜色是红色，而不是绿色。美国的住房市场仍然处于失控状态，取消抵押品赎回权的危机仍在继续，越来越多的房主发现他们的抵押贷款债务已经超过了自己房子的价值。去年普通的住房建筑商裁掉了他们四分之一的员工；业内人士估计，今年将仅出售632，000 新住宅，这是自1992年以来出售数目最低的时期。虽然处于这一萧条的形势下，但是却出现了关于消费者需求转向“绿色住宅”的传闻，以及尽管建筑行业面临破产，而具有专业技能的建筑师却仍然那么忙碌。在2007年全国住宅建筑商协会的一项调查中，购房者表示，如果可以减少他们的水电等费用账单，他们愿意多花费美元在购房上。整个行业意识到消费者已经达成了高度一致。美国绿色建筑委员会高级副总裁米歇尔· 穆尔说：“绿色建筑是市场的发展方向，这几乎被认为是既成事实”。

3. For all the professed consumer interest, though, the average home buyer knows little about green building. That’s partly because it’s a broad concept with several components. The most obvious attribute is energy efficiency. For some buyers, that means investing big money in fancy geothermal or solar technologies — but more often it simply means being diligent about using good insulation, efficient appliances, superior windows and designing the house to take advantage of the sun. Green houses also conserve water,

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often by using specialized plumbing fixtures. For some builders, going green also means limiting waste, sometimes by using “panelized,” factory-built walls or recycling wood from older homes. Inside, green homes often feature sustainable materials, like countertops made from recycled glass. 虽然声称会给广大消费者带来好处，但是普通的购房者对绿色建筑仍旧是一知半解。在一定程度上是因为它是由几个部分组成的一个广义概念。最明显的是能源效能。对于一些购房者来说，这意味着花大把钱来投资高效环保的地热或太阳能，但是多半只意味着费尽心思利用良好的隔热、有效的装置和较好的窗户，并且设计一所利用太阳能的房子。绿色房屋也可以储存水，通常要使用专门的供水设备。对于一些建造者来说，追求绿色环保也意味着要减少浪费，有时要使用预制的、工厂制造的专用墙或者是循环利用旧房屋中的木材。而且，绿色房屋的特征就是通常使用可持续材料，例如厨房的工作台面就是用可回收玻璃制作而成的。

4. For a public tired of stories about the latest health scare, green homes have another allure: they’re often healthier. Since these homes are built more tightly than drafty older homes, many builders install systems to bring in — and filter — fresh air. Green builders typically use paints that are low in volatile organic compounds, and avoid the carpeting, adhesives and varnishes that often give new homes their distinctive smell — and that have been associated with health problems. When George and Dorrie Sieburg hired Moody to remodel their Asheville bungalow in 2005, this approach was a big selling point. “At the time, we were pregnant, and we wanted to build as green as we could to make sure it was safe for our child,” says George, whose wife is expecting again.

最近，对于已经听腻了关于健康恐慌的传闻的大众来说，绿色房屋有另一种诱惑：它们通常比较有利于健康。因为这些房子建造的比通风良好的老房子更加牢固，许多建造者安装了可以吸入

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——并且过滤——新鲜空气的系统。绿色房屋的建造者通常使用挥发性低的有机化合物涂料，并且避免使用地毯，粘合剂和清漆，因为它们经常在新房中散发出独特的味道并且会引起健康问题。在2005 年，当乔治和多里·西博格雇佣穆迪改造他们在阿什维尔的平房时，这种做法成为了一大卖点。乔治说“那个时候，我妻子已经怀孕了，我们想尽可能盖一座绿色环保的房屋以确保它对我们小孩的健康没有影响”，他的妻子又有孕在身。

5. As with many innovations, some of the biggest gains in efficiency come from using old-school materials that have been slow to catch on. Consider spray-on foam insulation, which fills and seals wall cavities better than the fiber glass used in most residential construction — but at twice the cost. As energy costs rise, however, more buyers are opting for it: sales of Icynene, the leading brand, grew 22 percent annually the past three years. When Jacob and Alecia Sessums added a master suite to their Asheville home, they opted for foam insulation, a multizone heating system and a superefficient tankless hot-water heater. As a result, their gas bill dropped from a high of $400 a month to $37. Says Alecia, 32: “For people in my generation, [going green] is the way you have to do it — there’s not a choice.”

和许多创新一样，一些最大的效能收益得益于使用老式材料，他们是经过相当长的时间才受大家欢迎。比如，可以保温的喷射泡沫，在大部分的住宅建设中用它来填充和密封墙洞比玻璃纤维效果更好，但前者的成本要高两倍。然而，随着能源成本的增加，更多的买家还是会选择它：安健能作为这种产品的领导品牌，在过去的三年它的销售每年增长22%。当雅各布和埃里希· 塞萨姆斯为他们阿什维尔的家增加一个主人套房时，他们选择了泡沫绝缘材料，多区域供热系统和高效能的无水槽热水加热器。结果，他们的天然气账单从过去的一个月高达400美元下降到如今的37美元。32岁的埃里希说，“对于我们这一代人来说，追求绿色环保是我们必须做的——我们别无选择。”

6. For darker shades of green, homeowners typically take more-radical action. In Grapevine, Texas, the home Ross and Tami Bannister moved into last fall is so tight, “it’s built kind of like an ice chest,” says Ross, who marvels at how infrequently the heat kicks on even on the coldest days. While their house is filled with sustainable products, its most innovative functions involve water. Out back lies a 10,000-gallon tank that collects rainwater from their roof; the water is filtered and routed inside for household use. On the roof, solar panels heat their water. Ross says people are sometimes surprised to hear about the home’s advanced technology, since it’s hidden beneath the bones of a classic Texas farmhouse. “It wasn’t like we built some sort of George Jetson-looking future house,” Ross says. That’s partly why their custom builder, Chris Miles of GreenCraft Builders, fields five calls a week from prospective buyers.

对于绿色建筑的不利之处，户主通常会采取更为激进的行动。去年秋天，罗斯和塔米·班尼斯特搬进了位于德克萨斯州格雷普雷恩市的家显得非常的拥挤，罗斯说：“它建得有点像一个冰盒子”，即使在最寒冷的日子，供暖系统的指针竟然是如此的平稳，很少急跳，这令他感到很吃惊。然而，他们的房子填充的都是可再生的产品，它们突出的革新功能是围绕如何节水。一个1,000 加仑的水槽安装在房屋的后面，用来收集房顶的雨水；这些雨水被过滤然后沿特定管道被输送到室内供家居使用。在屋顶上，利用太阳能把水加热。罗斯说，有时人们听到这种房屋所使用的高新技术后会感到惊讶，因为它掩藏在古典的德克萨斯民房之内。罗斯说：“它不像我们建造类似乔治·杰特森式的未来房子”。在某种程度上，这也是为什么他们的建筑商，克里斯迈尔斯绿色技艺建筑家公司，每个星期会接到五次来自未来的购房者的电话。

7. The biggest energy-savers can still require big investments. A photovoltaic solar system, which generates a home's electricity from the sun, can cost $40,000. Likewise, a geothermal system — which uses pipes to send water underground, where the heat stored

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by the earth’s subsurface is converted into energy to heat and cool the home — has long been a budget buster. But as energy costs rise, the return on investment does, too. Last fall, when Shirey Contracting remodeled Sean and Lynn Dillon’s home in North Bend, Wash., the couple spent $34,000 on a geothermal system. That’s more than twice the cost of an ordinary heating and cooling system, but Sean figures it will pay for itself in six years. Along the way, they’ll feel good about reducing their carbon footprint.

最大的能源节约仍需要大量的投资。一个光电太阳能系统造价在40，000 美元，可供一个家庭用电。同样地，一个地热系统—利用管道把水送往地下，然后地表下储存的热量被转换成能量来调节室内温度—长期以来都是预算的克星。但是随着能源价格上涨，投资者也得到了回报。去年秋天，西雷承包重新装修肖恩和琳·狄龙在华盛顿州北班德市的房子，这对夫妻花费了34,000 美元修建地热系统。这比普通的供热系统的造价要高两倍多，但是肖恩指出，六年以后它的使用成本就回来了。按照这种方式，他们觉得很满意，因为这样可以减少他们的碳排放。

8. Builders are working hard to educate consumers about why such expenses can be worthwhile — and why a lot of green innovations can be done for relatively little money. New kinds of certifications will also help consumers understand the paybacks. In December, the U.S. Green Building Council began offering LEED certification (it stands for Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) for homes; last month the National Association of Home Builders announced plans for its own green certification. Both use point systems that tally up a new home’s earth-friendly attributes and award different levels of certification. In theory, a certified home will be easier to resell down the line, but green-building advocates also hope that the new yardsticks will make consumers pay more attention, the same way Consumer Reports and J.D. Power and Associates rankings became big influences on car shoppers a generation ago. Says home-building consultant

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Sara Lamia: “People will see how the house they’re living in is costing them money, and it gives consumers a reason to buy a new home.”

建造者们努力开导消费者让他们相信为什么这些花费是值得的——以及为什么使用相对较少的钱就可以完成很多绿色革新。新型的认证也将有助于消费者明白这些回报。在12月份，美国绿色建筑协会开始发放面向家庭的能源环境设计先锋奖证书（代表着领先的能源与环境设计）；上个月，国家住宅建筑者协会宣布制作自己的绿色认证计划。这些认证都使用分值系统来计算一个新家对环境保护的程度，并给以不同等级的认证奖励。从理论上来说，被认证的房屋总是会被更容易的转卖，但是绿色建筑的倡导者希望新的衡量标准会让更多的消费者关注。正如在上一代，消费者报告和麦格劳-希尔企业公司的排名对汽车购买者产生了很大的影响。住宅建筑顾问萨拉•拉米亚说：“人们会明白他们居住的房屋是如何花掉他们的钱，并且这给消费者一个购买新房屋的理由”。

9. At times such chatter about how a shift toward green building might lift this moribund industry sounds like so much wishful thinking. So far most of the biggest builders are experimenting with only the most basic green innovations (like using Energy Star appliances); most of the greenest builders do only a tiny number of custom homes. “The smaller you are, the more your numbers might mislead you to thinking this is what matters,” says Ivy Zelman, an industry researcher. Some environmentalists apparently believe builders are putting green labels on homes that aren’t really environmentally friendly — an attitude that appears to have motivated arsonists who torched a neighborhood of newly built trophy homes outside Seattle last week, leaving signs saying BUILT GREEN? NOPE BLACK!

有时这种关于向绿色建筑转型也许能挽救这个不景气的行业的喋喋不休的讨论听起来像是一味的痴心妄想。直到现在，大多数的最大型的建筑公司仅仅是实验性的用一些最基本的绿色革新技术

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产品（如使用能源之星认证的器具）；大多数最环保的建筑商只修建极少量的房屋。“你的规模越小，你的数目越是会误导你以为这才是重要的，”行业研究者艾维•泽尔曼说道。一些环保主义者显然相信建筑商只是给房屋贴上绿色标签，但不是真正的有利于环保——这种看法似乎激起了纵火犯于上周引火燃烧了在西雅图郊外的一个社区新建的受奖励的房屋，留下了“绿色建造? 杜绝黑手”这样的标识。

10. It’s also apparent that some green innovations are used side by side with products that aren’t so earth-friendly. At the International Builders Show in Orlando last month, the plumbing company Kohler showed off ecominded low-flow shower heads and bathroom faucets —but across its booth, it also displayed gigantic water-hogging showers and whirlpool tubs nearly large enough to hold residents of Sea World. Likewise, if you build a green home in the exurbs but still drive an hour to work, has your carbon footprint really decreased? These are questions Danielle and John Arnett have considered. Next month they’ll break ground on a 4,600-square-foot home in Colleyville, Texas. They hope to include loads of green technologies — perhaps even solar panels and a wind turbine — but they’re still building a house that’s nearly twice the size of the average newly built U.S. home. They admit a smaller house would be greener, but in their neighborhood, where nearby homes range from 6,500 to 12,000 square feet, they say their new house will be downright cozy. “It sounds crazy … but it’s really, really relative,” says Danielle, who notes they reduced bedroom sizes in an attempt to downsize the design.

而且，很明显的是,一些绿色技术创新和一些不是很环保的产品一起被使用。上个月在奥兰多举行的国际建筑博展览会上，科勒管道公司展示了环保型的低流量的了淋浴喷头和浴室水龙头，但是在它的展位，也展示出巨大的高耗水的淋浴喷头和漩涡式的浴缸，这种浴缸大的几乎能容纳海洋世界主题公园的人。同样地，如果你在远郊修建一个绿色家园，但仍然驾车一个小时去上班，你的碳

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排放量真的减少了吗？这些问题丹妮尔和约翰·阿内特已经慎重考虑过。下个月他们将在德克萨斯州的格利维尔市动工修建一个4600 平方英尺的家。他们希望利用大量的绿色环保技术，甚至包括太阳能面板和风力机，但是他们还盖了一个比普通的美国新建的房屋几乎大两倍的房子。他们承认较小的房屋会更环保，但是在他们社区，附近的房屋面积都在6500至12000平方英尺的范围，他们说他们的新房将会很温暖舒适。丹妮拉说：“这听起来很不理智的…但是确实是相对而言”。她指出为了精简设计他们缩小了卧室的尺寸。

11. If there is a downside to this trend, it may be the growing number of green homeowners who’ll brag about low utility bills the way golfers boast of low golf scores. But for builder Rob Moody, whatever motivates people to desire better-built homes, he’s not complaining. “People know it’s good for their pocketbook, they know it’s good for the environment, and they like the badge,” says Moody, who was in New Orleans last week working with ABC’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” on an earth-friendly project. Green homes may not spark the building industry’s recovery, but in a world whose energy problems aren’t going away, they certainly can’t hurt.

如果说建造绿色住宅有什么负效应的话，那就是越来越多的绿色房屋主人可能会炫耀投资的设施费用低，就像打高尔夫球的人夸耀自己得了低分一样。但是对于建筑商罗伯·穆迪来说，无论人们渴望建造更好的房屋的动机如何，他都不会抱怨。上周，在新奥尔良他参与了美国广播公司电视台主办的关于保护地球的家装真人秀节目“改头换面：家庭改造”。他说：“人们知道这样可以节省财力，可以保护环境，他们喜欢这种徽标。”绿色住宅或许不能激起建筑行业的复苏，但是在一个能源紧缺问题还没有解决的世界，他们无疑是有利无害的。

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